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Lynn Helms - Director's Cut

May 15, 2018

Lynn HelmsOil Production
February 32,908,840 barrels = 1,175,316 barrels/day (final)
March 36,024,209 barrels = 1,162,071 barrels/day (preliminary)
(all-time high was Dec 2014 at 1,227,483 barrels/day)

Gas Production
February 58,971,398 MCF = 2,106,121 MCF/day
March 65,605,128 MCF = 2,116,294 MCF/day (NEW all-time high)

The drilling rig count was up two from February to March then increased one from March to April, and is currently unchanged from April to today. Operators have shifted from running the minimum number of rigs to incremental increases and decreases as WTI oil price moves between $45 and $60/barrel. WTI would have to drop below $45/barrel for more than 30 days for rig count to drop. WTI has remained above $55/barrel for more than 90 days so rig count is expected to continue increasing. Current operator plans are to add 5-10 rigs in the second and third quarters of 2018 depending on workforce and infrastructure constraints.

The number of well completions has stabilized primarily due to weather at 65(final) in January, 67 (final) in February, and 65 (preliminary) in March.

Oil price downside risk has diminished. OPEC is discussing how to manage production cuts through late 2018 as Venezuela’s exports collapse and the US imposes sanctions on Iran. Crude oil futures markets appear to anticipate supply and demand remaining in balance through OPEC production cuts and US shale production growth. US crude oil inventories are now approximately equal to the long term average.

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